Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3524 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 3524 CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 5370 CMH 19:52 → ORD 20:18 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3524 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:09	3%	2%	1.0%	94%
YX 4563 Republic	CMH 05:28	ORD 06:00	4%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 622 United Flight history →	CMH 11:03	ORD 11:39	13%	7%	1.1%	89%
YX 3716 Republic	CMH 12:33	ORD 13:05	16%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 3572 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 08:29	ORD 09:10	16%	6%	1.1%	76%
UA 2653 United	CMH 08:33	ORD 09:00	17%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 466 United Flight history →	CMH 07:09	ORD 07:33	17%	6%	1.0%	81%
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 10:21	ORD 10:46	17%	6%	1.2%	89%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:38	ORD 07:03	18%	4%	1.1%	78%
AA 6347 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 13:05	ORD 13:30	33%	15%	3.0%	47%
MQ 3815 Envoy	CMH 15:21	ORD 16:00	34%	17%	4.4%	no record
UA 3465 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 16:25	ORD 16:57	35%	17%	4.0%	75%
UA 1293 United	CMH 14:10	ORD 14:35	36%	18%	1.8%	no record
YX 3402 Republic	CMH 18:09	ORD 18:52	36%	20%	3.5%	no record
MQ 3917 Envoy	CMH 20:58	ORD 21:31	39%	16%	3.2%	no record
OO 5370 SkyWest	CMH 19:52	ORD 20:18	42%	21%	6.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON