tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2785 Southwest CMH 10:25 SAN 12:06 21% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 52m Chicago ORD 07:01 → SAN 09:29UA 2428 6h 59m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:28UA 3430 · flown by Republic 47m Dulles IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930 7h 39m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 55m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492 6h 47m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33UA 3458 · flown by Republic 54m Newark EWR 09:27 → SAN 11:59UA 1826 8h 19m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:36DL 843 8h 36m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 03m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:57 → PHL 07:42AA 2867 57m Philadelphia PHL 08:39 → SAN 11:20AA 1621 8h 23m 94% 73%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 37m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 52m Dulles IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930 7h 38m 66% 55%
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:01 → IAH 19:04UA 4074 · flown by Mesa 57m Houston IAH 20:01 → SAN 21:43UA 1911 7h 42m 75% 50%
AmericanDetails → CMH 20:05 → DFW 21:48AA 2337 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 6h 54m 69% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON