Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 462 Alaska	CMH 08:35	SEA 10:40	25%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic	3h 09m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 37m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 45m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 14m	100%	80%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	51m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → SEA 09:40UA 341	7h 10m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic	2h 30m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 47m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:40 → BOS 12:43DL 5654 · flown by Republic	2h 57m Boston	BOS 15:40 → SEA 19:11DL 2889	11h 31m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	9h 07m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CMH 20:05 → DFW 21:48AA 2337	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	7h 52m	59%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON