Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1597 United Flight history →	CMH 07:00	SFO 09:06	19%	6%	0.7%	75%
UA 1354 United	CMH 15:32	SFO 17:47	25%	12%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:28UA 3430 · flown by Republic	2h 14m Dulles	IAD 09:42 → SFO 12:42UA 1773	9h 43m	100%	86%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116	7h 49m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic	2h 45m Boston	BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860	11h 21m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic	2h 15m New York	JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363	10h 30m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	9h 19m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:11 → ATL 09:45DL 3165	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	9h 39m	98%	73%
American Details →	CMH 06:01 → CLT 07:31AA 3206	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 09:33 → SFO 12:08AA 2428	9h 07m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	50m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 20m	92%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CMH 18:15 → JFK 20:29DL 5650 · flown by Republic	46m New York	JFK 21:15 → SFO 00:53 +1DL 1732	9h 38m	69%	45%
American Details →	CMH 20:05 → DFW 21:48AA 2337	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446	7h 38m	71%	35%
United Details →	CMH 17:09 → DEN 18:39UA 1389	46m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SFO 21:11UA 1389	7h 02m	41%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON