tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4884 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4884 Southwest CMH 07:11 STL 07:47 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1914 Southwest CMH 20:35 STL 21:12 25% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 3h 51m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 06m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 5h 50m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 43m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:57 → PHL 07:42AA 2867 1h 09m Philadelphia PHL 08:51 → STL 10:23AA 1739 5h 26m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 12m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 6h 57m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33UA 3458 · flown by Republic 1h 08m Newark EWR 09:41 → STL 11:18UA 2311 5h 38m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:59 → IAD 07:28UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 32m Dulles IAD 09:00 → STL 10:27UA 4425 · flown by GoJet 5h 28m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 16:25 → ORD 16:57UA 3465 · flown by Republic 58m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 3h 58m 64% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON