Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 6221 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day OO 6221 COS 05:58 → DFW 08:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1170 COS 16:02 → DFW 19:04 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6221 SkyWest	COS 05:58	DFW 08:53	11%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 782 American Flight history →	COS 08:01	DFW 10:56	14%	6%	1.3%	92%
AA 1552 American Flight history →	COS 10:25	DFW 13:18	22%	9%	1.2%	71%
OO 6197 SkyWest	COS 13:20	DFW 16:14	25%	11%	1.3%	no record
OO 6234 SkyWest	COS 17:15	DFW 20:09	26%	12%	1.5%	no record
AA 1170 American Flight history →	COS 16:02	DFW 19:04	35%	12%	1.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON