Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5325 at 07:42, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5325 COS 07:42 → IAH 11:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5325 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 07:42	IAH 11:30	8%	5%	1.0%	88%
UA 4029 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	COS 07:30	IAH 11:03	11%	1%	0.0%	89%
UA 4030 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	COS 12:06	IAH 15:35	19%	13%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON