tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Colorado Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → COS 06:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5291 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Denver DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397 5h 40m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → COS 06:00 → ATL 10:54DL 1074 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 50m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → COS 18:16 → SLC 20:09DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847 7h 33m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 6h 26m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → COS 11:31 → DEN 12:45UA 4675 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 6h 15m 98% 68%
AmericanDetails → COS 08:01 → DFW 10:56AA 782 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:06 → MSP 14:42AA 1668 5h 41m 91% 65%
UnitedDetails → COS 17:07 → DEN 18:20UA 4719 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 5h 52m 92% 62%
AmericanDetails → COS 10:25 → DFW 13:18AA 1552 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:04 → MSP 18:42AA 2406 7h 17m 95% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → COS 18:32 → DEN 19:45UA 5391 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 4h 27m 74% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON