Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5964 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–39%.

Safest bet that day OO 5964 COS 08:00 → ORD 11:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4942 COS 12:50 → ORD 16:34 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5964 SkyWest	COS 08:00	ORD 11:36	19%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 1398 United Flight history →	COS 12:11	ORD 15:56	36%	17%	2.1%	78%worse than usual
OO 4942 SkyWest	COS 12:50	ORD 16:34	39%	20%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON