tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 551 at 09:50, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 551 Southwest COS 09:50 SAN 11:15 22% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Colorado Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → COS 07:05 → DEN 08:10UA 4696 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 36m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:30 → IAH 11:03UA 4029 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 14:17 → SAN 15:39UA 1114 9h 09m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → COS 06:00 → ATL 10:54DL 1074 56m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 08m 92% 70%
UnitedDetails → COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 6h 35m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → COS 18:16 → SLC 20:09DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 6h 34m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → COS 11:31 → DEN 12:45UA 4675 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 6h 49m 99% 63%
AmericanDetails → COS 08:01 → DFW 10:56AA 782 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:48 → SAN 15:58AA 2361 8h 57m 98% 58%
UnitedDetails → COS 12:06 → IAH 15:35UA 4030 · flown by Mesa 57m Houston IAH 16:32 → SAN 18:05UA 2798 6h 59m 80% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → COS 18:32 → DEN 19:45UA 5391 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 20:57 → SAN 22:25UA 2395 4h 53m 74% 42%
UnitedDetails → COS 17:07 → DEN 18:20UA 4719 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 4h 39m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON