tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: OO 117 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 117 SkyWest COS 08:09 SLC 09:57 7% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 4449 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → COS 18:16 SLC 20:09 17% 7% 1.8% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → COS 07:05 → DEN 08:10UA 4696 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 6h 08m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Denver DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840 5h 53m 98% 64%
UnitedDetails → COS 17:07 → DEN 18:20UA 4719 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 5h 37m 94% 59%
AmericanDetails → COS 10:25 → DFW 13:18AA 1552 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:17 → SLC 16:10AA 1456 5h 45m 78% 45%
AmericanDetails → COS 16:02 → DFW 19:04AA 1170 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993 6h 57m 87% 43%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → COS 17:07 → DEN 18:20UA 4719 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Denver DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769 3h 49m 65% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON