Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5857 at 09:14, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5857 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COU 09:14	DEN 10:35	20%	17%	1.3%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01AA 3655 · flown by Envoy	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:23AA 2363	6h 03m	94%	69%
American Details →	COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50AA 3525 · flown by Envoy	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:00 → DEN 13:05AA 1462	7h 10m	97%	64%
United Details →	COU 10:49 → ORD 12:30UA 4605 · flown by GoJet	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	6h 42m	92%	51%
American Details →	COU 12:00 → DFW 14:02AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → DEN 17:19AA 1322	6h 19m	96%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON