Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3525 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3525 COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest MQ 3402 COU 18:27 → DFW 20:27 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3525 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 06:55	DFW 08:50	18%	11%	4.2%	88%
AA 3416 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 12:00	DFW 14:02	25%	11%	2.5%	82%
MQ 3928 Envoy	COU 19:51	DFW 21:48	27%	16%	4.6%	no record
MQ 3402 Envoy	COU 18:27	DFW 20:27	29%	17%	4.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON