Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3655 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–54%.

Safest bet that day AA 3655 COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest MQ 3398 COU 18:27 → ORD 19:57 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3655 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 06:20	ORD 08:01	13%	10%	2.9%	87%
MQ 3394 Envoy	COU 10:38	ORD 12:09	28%	16%	5.0%	no record
OO 4779 SkyWest	COU 11:17	ORD 12:47	34%	20%	4.6%	no record
MQ 3398 Envoy	COU 18:27	ORD 19:57	54%	31%	11.2%	no record
UA 4605 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	COU 10:49	ORD 12:30	11%	8%	2.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON