tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 793 at 10:30, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 793 Southwest CVG 10:30 AUS 12:19 10% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record CVG 08:10 AUS 09:50 10% 7% 0.9% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 6h 29m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:35UA 4532 · flown by GoJet 2h 26m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 59m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 28m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 40m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 41m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 16m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 1h 29m Newark EWR 09:36 → AUS 12:43UA 1238 7h 43m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 39m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11UA 2442 3h 54m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 7h 37m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON