tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1297 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1297 Southwest CVG 06:50 BNA 07:08 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1423 Southwest CVG 16:25 BNA 16:44 18% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 07m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 21m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:00 → DCA 08:33DL 5229 · flown by Endeavor 1h 35m Washington DCA 10:08 → BNA 11:13DL 5708 · flown by Republic 5h 13m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor 2h 54m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 5h 49m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:35UA 4532 · flown by GoJet 2h 04m Chicago ORD 08:39 → BNA 10:12UA 1674 5h 12m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 03m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 29m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 2h 34m Newark EWR 10:41 → BNA 12:02UA 2776 7h 02m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 4h 58m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CVG 12:35 → DCA 14:07DL 5221 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m Washington DCA 15:10 → BNA 16:15DL 5777 · flown by Republic 4h 40m 65% 52%
AmericanDetails → CVG 13:15 → PHL 15:04AA 5514 · flown by PSA 59m Philadelphia PHL 16:03 → BNA 17:15AA 1280 5h 00m 73% 52%
UnitedDetails → CVG 15:29 → DEN 16:30UA 479 1h 00m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 6h 44m 70% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON