Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2349 at 04:52 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2349 CVG 04:52 → CLT 06:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1556 CVG 17:12 → CLT 18:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2349 American	CVG 04:52	CLT 06:21	11%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 429 American Flight history →	CVG 07:12	CLT 08:41	17%	5%	1.3%	90%
AA 430 American Flight history →	CVG 10:29	CLT 12:00	22%	5%	1.2%	60%
OH 5256 PSA	CVG 13:55	CLT 15:27	25%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5111 PSA	CVG 19:04	CLT 20:36	28%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1556 American Flight history →	CVG 17:12	CLT 18:44	29%	7%	1.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON