Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3157 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3157 CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2919 CVG 19:12 → DFW 20:49 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3157 American Flight history →	CVG 06:00	DFW 07:32	12%	5%	1.2%	79%
AA 807 American Flight history →	CVG 08:06	DFW 09:50	14%	5%	1.1%	83%
AA 2610 American Flight history →	CVG 11:56	DFW 13:25	18%	6%	1.0%	79%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	CVG 15:11	DFW 16:45	25%	7%	1.0%	75%
AA 2919 American	CVG 19:12	DFW 20:49	34%	9%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON