tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4422 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record CVG 19:45 IAD 21:25 14% 8% 3.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:35UA 4532 · flown by GoJet 2h 05m Chicago ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52UA 2277 5h 52m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444 6h 07m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 04m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135 6h 24m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 04m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 17m Chicago ORD 10:51 → IAD 13:45UA 1486 6h 45m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 1h 50m Newark EWR 09:57 → IAD 11:15UA 1618 5h 15m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:03 → DTW 12:16DL 5209 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 38m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → CVG 12:18 → ATL 13:58F9 1846 54m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → IAD 16:40F9 4410 4h 22m 72% 51%
AmericanDetails → CVG 17:12 → CLT 18:44AA 1556 51m Charlotte CLT 19:35 → IAD 21:02AA 1954 3h 50m 66% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON