tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2915 Delta Flight history → CVG 07:16 LAS 08:16 12% 2% 0.6% 83%
G4 371 Allegiant Flight history → CVG 07:30 LAS 08:44 18% 5% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 22m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 6h 57m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 23m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 6h 53m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 6h 51m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11UA 2442 3h 44m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 38m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02UA 1666 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 2h 47m Newark EWR 10:54 → LAS 13:21UA 446 10h 21m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:45 → JFK 08:50DL 5044 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 10h 16m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CVG 18:29 → DTW 19:50DL 5071 · flown by Endeavor 53m Detroit DTW 20:43 → LAS 21:58DL 916 6h 29m 70% 45%
AmericanDetails → CVG 19:22 → ORD 19:57AA 4343 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Chicago ORD 21:06 → LAS 23:06AA 3323 6h 44m 63% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON