Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic	2h 33m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	11h 03m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 01m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 03m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	8h 11m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:10 → AUS 09:50DL 5005 · flown by Endeavor	3h 50m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	9h 38m	100%	81%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → JFK 08:11AA 4657 · flown by Republic	2h 49m New York	JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3	10h 58m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 12m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:03 → DTW 12:16DL 5209 · flown by Endeavor	3h 34m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	9h 30m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 16:00 → DTW 17:17DL 5456 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852	7h 04m	71%	53%
Delta Details →	CVG 18:29 → DTW 19:50DL 5071 · flown by Endeavor	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 20:59 → LAX 22:46DL 694	7h 17m	72%	49%
American Details →	CVG 15:11 → DFW 16:45AA 3305	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:38 → LAX 18:57AA 2125	6h 46m	65%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON