tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2244 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2244 Southwest CVG 08:50 MDW 09:16 7% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 865 Southwest CVG 20:20 MDW 20:44 29% 8% 2.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063 5h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 5h 47m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor 2h 54m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 5h 32m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 7h 10m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 6h 59m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor 3h 55m 94% 69%
FrontierDetails → CVG 12:18 → ATL 13:58F9 1846 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → MDW 18:13F9 2779 6h 55m 96% 56%
DeltaDetails → CVG 14:15 → DTW 15:33DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor 2h 34m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 5h 14m 94% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:00 → DTW 17:17DL 5456 · flown by Endeavor 50m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 3h 29m 61% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON