Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2752 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2752 CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 703 CVG 19:43 → MSP 20:41 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2752 Delta Flight history →	CVG 06:09	MSP 07:05	6%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 954 Delta Flight history →	CVG 11:00	MSP 11:56	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1776 Delta	CVG 16:26	MSP 17:28	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 703 Delta Flight history →	CVG 19:43	MSP 20:41	18%	7%	0.7%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON