Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1379 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–54%.

Safest bet that day UA 1379 CVG 05:25 → ORD 05:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5595 CVG 18:15 → ORD 18:47 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1379 United	CVG 05:25	ORD 05:54	8%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 4094 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:00	ORD 06:32	11%	4%	1.0%	82%
YX 3690 Republic	CVG 09:06	ORD 09:48	11%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 2752 United Flight history →	CVG 07:00	ORD 07:34	18%	5%	1.0%	91%
UA 1738 United	CVG 10:47	ORD 11:18	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 2755 American	CVG 07:51	ORD 08:21	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3935 Envoy	CVG 10:32	ORD 11:00	23%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 3426 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 11:58	ORD 12:26	27%	9%	1.4%	67%
OO 5540 SkyWest	CVG 11:54	ORD 12:25	27%	10%	2.3%	no record
YX 4460 Republic	CVG 14:16	ORD 14:51	31%	12%	2.8%	no record
OO 4735 SkyWest	CVG 14:06	ORD 14:35	43%	17%	4.1%	no record
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 19:22	ORD 19:57	44%	16%	4.8%	80%worse than usual
OO 4749 SkyWest	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:42	50%	21%	6.0%	no record
OO 5595 SkyWest	CVG 18:15	ORD 18:47	54%	21%	6.7%	no record
UA 4532 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 06:00	ORD 06:35	10%	10%	0.0%	90%
UA 4177 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 19:54	ORD 20:34	22%	0%	12.9%	78%
UA 4171 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:52	23%	14%	5.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON