Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5330 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–27%.

Safest bet that day OH 5330 CVG 05:48 → PHL 07:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5514 CVG 13:15 → PHL 15:04 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5330 PSA	CVG 05:48	PHL 07:51	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
YX 4779 Republic	CVG 15:26	PHL 17:31	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 5578 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 07:53	PHL 09:43	18%	5%	0.9%	86%
OH 5298 PSA	CVG 11:04	PHL 13:07	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 5515 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 20:44	PHL 22:26	25%	8%	1.3%	63%
AA 5514 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 13:15	PHL 15:04	27%	7%	1.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON