Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3091 American	CVG 18:02	PHX 19:07	27%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 34m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 27m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	7h 54m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	8h 36m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	8h 09m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	8h 00m	98%	78%
United Details →	CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:35UA 4532 · flown by GoJet	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 09:02 → PHX 11:03UA 2225	8h 03m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	59m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 25m	91%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 18:29 → DTW 19:50DL 5071 · flown by Endeavor	54m Detroit	DTW 20:44 → PHX 21:48DL 2076	6h 19m	70%	47%
American Details →	CVG 15:11 → DFW 16:45AA 3305	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:38 → PHX 18:17AA 2047	6h 06m	65%	38%
American Details →	CVG 19:22 → ORD 19:57AA 4343 · flown by Republic	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 20:59 → PHX 22:54AA 3277	6h 32m	56%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON