tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5400 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record CVG 13:31 RDU 15:02 17% 7% 0.7% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 6h 04m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 2h 39m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 5h 38m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 33m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy 1h 46m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 5h 38m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 15m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 6h 15m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 3h 05m Newark EWR 11:12 → RDU 12:57UA 1410 6h 57m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 14m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 7h 01m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 15:11 → DFW 16:45AA 3305 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:43 → RDU 21:34AA 979 6h 23m 72% 38%
AmericanDetails → CVG 19:22 → ORD 19:57AA 4343 · flown by Republic 56m Chicago ORD 20:53 → RDU 23:56AA 600 4h 34m 35% 11%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON