Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1600 at 07:31, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1600 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:31	RSW 09:46	9%	4%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 18m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43DL 1089	4h 09m	96%	83%
United Details →	CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:35UA 4532 · flown by GoJet	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 08:57 → RSW 12:56UA 1036	6h 56m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	5h 02m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:03 → DTW 12:16DL 5209 · flown by Endeavor	2h 12m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	6h 19m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:36 → RSW 11:36DL 2001	5h 17m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 20m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 39m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON