Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 966 Delta Flight history →	CVG 06:40	SEA 08:34	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
AS 519 Alaska	CVG 08:39	SEA 10:33	25%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 50m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 39m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 41m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic	3h 07m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 50m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:10 → AUS 09:50DL 5005 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m Austin	AUS 11:14 → SEA 13:45DL 1684	8h 35m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:16 → LAS 08:16DL 2915	2h 53m Las Vegas	LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922	9h 44m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 15m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:45 → JFK 08:50DL 5044 · flown by Endeavor	2h 40m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	11h 05m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CVG 15:11 → DFW 16:45AA 3305	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:38 → SEA 20:00AA 1483	7h 49m	65%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON