tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 1668 Frontier Flight history → CVG 08:51 TPA 11:14 19% 6% 0.7% 88%
DL 1679 Delta Flight history → CVG 15:20 TPA 17:29 19% 6% 0.8% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 08:29 → TPA 09:59DL 1227 4h 25m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 20m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 2h 39m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 31m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:35UA 4532 · flown by GoJet 54m Chicago ORD 07:29 → TPA 11:22UA 2326 5h 22m 90% 81%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 1h 21m Newark EWR 09:28 → TPA 12:33UA 1415 6h 33m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:38 → TPA 15:11DL 8862 6h 56m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 45m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 12m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:36DL 1720 5h 31m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON