Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G4 1985 Allegiant Flight history →	CVG 13:05	VPS 14:03	13%	6%	0.7%	82%
G4 1987 Allegiant	CVG 18:23	VPS 19:21	19%	8%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → VPS 08:31DL 3051	3h 57m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 20m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	4h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CVG 13:18 → ATL 14:51DL 3149	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 24m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 41m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	5h 33m	97%	76%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32AA 3157	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	6h 28m	97%	75%
American Details →	CVG 08:06 → DFW 09:50AA 807	2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	7h 37m	99%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON