Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1040 at 07:30, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1040 Southwest	DAL 07:30	CHS 11:05	9%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	4h 55m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	4h 46m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	7h 27m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:20 → HOU 10:35WN 9	3h 30m Houston	HOU 14:05 → CHS 17:44WN 503	7h 24m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:27 → CHS 20:42DL 2493	7h 23m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON