tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2576 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2576 Southwest DAL 09:10 CMH 12:35 7% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2303 Southwest DAL 20:46 CMH 00:13 36% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 6h 33m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 14:19 → CMH 15:58DL 2892 4h 51m 87% 75%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 22:03 → CMH 23:40DL 1459 6h 41m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 5h 44m 94% 74%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 16:52 → HOU 18:13WN 41 2h 32m Houston HOU 20:45 → CMH 00:21 +1WN 4751 6h 29m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → DAL 18:35 → HOU 19:50WN 49 55m Houston HOU 20:45 → CMH 00:21 +1WN 4751 4h 46m 69% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON