Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1974 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1974 Southwest	DAL 10:05	COS 11:00	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2163 Southwest	DAL 21:00	COS 22:04	31%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → COS 12:32DL 2427	7h 27m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:15 → HOU 16:30WN 35	3h 24m Houston	HOU 19:54 → COS 21:14WN 4013	6h 59m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON