Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1348 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–51%.

Safest bet that day WN 1348 DAL 06:27 → DEN 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1352 DAL 17:30 → DEN 18:38 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1348 Southwest	DAL 06:27	DEN 07:35	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 9000 Southwest	DAL 09:59	DEN 11:12	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1350 Southwest	DAL 08:58	DEN 10:06	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1353 Southwest	DAL 10:58	DEN 12:02	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1563 Southwest	DAL 13:07	DEN 14:11	31%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2053 Southwest	DAL 22:30	DEN 23:35	35%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1351 Southwest	DAL 14:12	DEN 15:20	35%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 914 Southwest	DAL 19:55	DEN 21:03	40%	13%	0.9%	no record
WN 2321 Southwest	DAL 18:55	DEN 20:00	42%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 1352 Southwest	DAL 17:30	DEN 18:38	51%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON