Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 311 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:54	ECP 08:57	5%	1%	0.6%	80%
WN 493 Southwest	DAL 20:35	ECP 22:37	32%	10%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 43m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	6h 05m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	DAL 12:30 → HOU 13:45WN 25	3h 50m Houston	HOU 17:35 → ECP 19:29WN 2529	6h 59m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	5h 36m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	4h 58m	83%	67%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	4h 47m	83%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON