Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1628 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 65 DAL 22:45 → HOU 00:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1628 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 06:00	HOU 07:10	5%	2%	2.4%	93%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:24	HOU 09:47	5%	3%	1.6%	84%
WN 9 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 09:20	HOU 10:35	6%	3%	1.3%	84%
WN 17 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 11:26	HOU 12:47	10%	3%	1.1%	91%
WN 25 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:30	HOU 13:45	18%	4%	1.0%	79%
WN 31 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:21	HOU 15:42	19%	5%	0.9%	80%
WN 35 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:15	HOU 16:30	21%	5%	0.9%	71%
WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:52	HOU 18:13	24%	6%	0.8%	68%
WN 49 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:35	HOU 19:50	30%	8%	0.8%	58%
WN 55 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:28	HOU 21:49	30%	7%	0.8%	57%
WN 65 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:45	HOU 00:06	30%	7%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON