Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135	7h 34m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → IAD 17:12DL 1695	6h 05m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 42m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	7h 44m	97%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	5h 02m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON