tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 268 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 268 Southwest DAL 09:20 IND 12:29 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2523 Southwest DAL 20:35 IND 23:46 34% 10% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 31m 97% 85%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628 3h 59m Houston HOU 11:09 → IND 14:28WN 2670 7h 28m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 7h 42m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → IND 17:36DL 2979 6h 29m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → IND 19:03DL 3120 5h 44m 94% 73%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 15:15 → HOU 16:30WN 35 3h 55m Houston HOU 20:25 → IND 23:42WN 2748 7h 27m 100% 72%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:28 → LAS 09:18WN 1318 1h 43m Las Vegas LAS 11:01 → IND 17:34WN 2952 8h 06m 100% 67%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414 2h 05m Chicago MDW 21:30 → IND 23:36WN 1931 5h 29m 89% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON