Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1370 at 07:50, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1370 Southwest	DAL 07:50	JAX 11:18	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	4h 55m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → JAX 17:56DL 2440	6h 49m	98%	73%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:15 → HOU 16:30WN 35	4h 00m Houston	HOU 20:30 → JAX 23:48WN 3361	7h 33m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189	5h 54m	95%	67%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 21:33 → JAX 22:49DL 2315	5h 50m	95%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON