Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3975 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3975 DAL 06:08 → MCI 07:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 990 DAL 19:15 → MCI 21:01 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3975 Southwest	DAL 06:08	MCI 07:53	4%	1%	3.2%	no record
WN 2314 Southwest	DAL 09:58	MCI 11:44	8%	2%	1.8%	no record
WN 4353 Southwest	DAL 12:13	MCI 13:58	17%	4%	2.3%	no record
WN 290 Southwest	DAL 13:53	MCI 15:40	18%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 858 Southwest	DAL 15:02	MCI 16:49	22%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 1402 Southwest	DAL 18:17	MCI 20:02	34%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 990 Southwest	DAL 19:15	MCI 21:01	35%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON