Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1404 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1404 DAL 06:41 → MCO 10:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1161 DAL 17:50 → MCO 21:32 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1404 Southwest	DAL 06:41	MCO 10:19	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4202 Southwest	DAL 07:40	MCO 11:20	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 598 Southwest	DAL 13:01	MCO 16:41	20%	6%	1.1%	no record
WN 1509 Southwest	DAL 10:56	MCO 14:38	22%	6%	2.4%	no record
WN 1407 Southwest	DAL 11:56	MCO 15:36	22%	7%	1.5%	no record
WN 4596 Southwest	DAL 21:00	MCO 00:39	28%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 1387 Southwest	DAL 19:57	MCO 23:38	31%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 1161 Southwest	DAL 17:50	MCO 21:32	34%	11%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON