tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2929 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2929 Southwest DAL 09:10 MEM 10:47 10% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 2488 Southwest DAL 17:50 MEM 19:27 34% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628 3h 11m Houston HOU 10:21 → MEM 12:02WN 1089 6h 02m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 27m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → MEM 17:06DL 1681 6h 59m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 11:26 → HOU 12:47WN 17 1h 54m Houston HOU 14:41 → MEM 16:22WN 1864 4h 56m 100% 71%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 16:52 → HOU 18:13WN 41 2h 22m Houston HOU 20:35 → MEM 22:16WN 626 5h 24m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 21:49 → MEM 22:12DL 1577 6h 13m 97% 65%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 17:52 → MEM 18:15DL 2939 5h 56m 95% 65%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414 2h 55m Chicago MDW 22:20 → MEM 00:05 +1WN 2775 6h 58m 95% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 54m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → MEM 20:32DL 3020 4h 33m 72% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON