Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1246 at 13:14, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1246 Southwest	DAL 13:14	MIA 17:08	36%	11%	3.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 02m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 56m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 48m	95%	58%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:26 → HOU 12:47WN 17	2h 23m Houston	HOU 15:10 → MIA 18:45WN 4660	6h 19m	100%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 16m	69%	48%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	54m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:22DL 719	5h 03m	75%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON