Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 416 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 416 Southwest	DAL 09:30	OKC 10:40	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1470 Southwest	DAL 23:16	OKC 00:22	27%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:14DL 2020	6h 09m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	55m Houston	HOU 08:05 → OKC 09:39WN 2615	3h 39m	94%	84%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:26 → HOU 12:47WN 17	2h 28m Houston	HOU 15:15 → OKC 16:49WN 1698	5h 23m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	6h 15m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:35 → HOU 19:50WN 49	2h 40m Houston	HOU 22:30 → OKC 00:03 +1WN 4896	5h 28m	97%	72%
Southwest Details →	DAL 12:30 → HOU 13:45WN 25	3h 45m Houston	HOU 17:30 → OKC 19:04WN 2357	6h 34m	99%	71%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 22:20 → OKC 00:34 +1WN 3269	7h 27m	95%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON