tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 380 at 09:38 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 380 Southwest DAL 09:38 OMA 11:31 10% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4385 Southwest DAL 20:35 OMA 22:34 36% 11% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:46DL 1125 6h 41m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 7h 41m 98% 76%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 15:15 → HOU 16:30WN 35 3h 55m Houston HOU 20:25 → OMA 22:43WN 2122 7h 28m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 08:28 → LAS 09:18WN 1318 3h 27m Las Vegas LAS 12:45 → OMA 17:30WN 759 9h 02m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → OMA 20:54DL 2707 8h 35m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010 7h 50m 97% 70%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414 2h 15m Chicago MDW 21:40 → OMA 23:17WN 2946 6h 10m 95% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 54m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 5h 29m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON