Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1433 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1433 DAL 06:00 → PHX 06:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1798 DAL 22:31 → PHX 23:08 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1433 Southwest	DAL 06:00	PHX 06:37	5%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 2069 Southwest	DAL 07:15	PHX 07:52	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 8843 Delta	DAL 06:22	PHX 06:58	9%	4%	1.4%	no record
WN 138 Southwest	DAL 10:55	PHX 11:34	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 188 Southwest	DAL 11:47	PHX 12:26	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 512 Southwest	DAL 14:35	PHX 15:14	27%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3538 Southwest	DAL 18:33	PHX 19:09	35%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 1439 Southwest	DAL 21:00	PHX 21:38	37%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 428 Southwest	DAL 19:25	PHX 20:01	38%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1798 Southwest	DAL 22:31	PHX 23:08	40%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON