Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4932 at 15:55, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4932 Southwest	DAL 15:55	PIT 19:37	24%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 47m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	7h 51m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568	6h 01m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:28 → LAS 09:18WN 1318	1h 37m Las Vegas	LAS 10:55 → PIT 18:03WN 2377	8h 35m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 16:56 → PIT 18:42DL 3122	5h 23m	90%	72%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:26 → HOU 12:47WN 17	1h 43m Houston	HOU 14:30 → PIT 18:21WN 1157	5h 55m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	50m Chicago	MDW 20:15 → PIT 22:47WN 1397	4h 40m	41%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON