Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4645 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4645 Southwest	DAL 08:45	PNS 10:38	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2956 Southwest	DAL 20:35	PNS 22:29	31%	9%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628	3h 05m Houston	HOU 10:15 → PNS 11:59WN 3529	5h 59m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640	6h 36m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 56m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086	5h 48m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807	5h 04m	84%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON