Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1444 at 15:15, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1444 Southwest	DAL 15:15	RDU 19:04	29%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 37m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	5h 13m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:20 → HOU 10:35WN 9	3h 15m Houston	HOU 13:50 → RDU 17:43WN 3252	7h 23m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:42 +1DL 2938	7h 43m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518	7h 38m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 20:55 → RDU 23:55WN 4648	5h 48m	68%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON